Iraq Group I World Cup 2026: France, Senegal and Norway

Group I at the 2026 World Cup is not a gentle introduction for Iraq’s return after 40 years. France are among the tournament favourites. Senegal arrive as African Cup of Nations finalists with the most physical defence in the competition. Norway are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998, led by arguably the best striker in the world. And Iraq, who qualified by a 52nd-minute goal against Bolivia in Monterrey on 31 March, sit fourth in every prediction model you can find. This page is an honest assessment of what Iraq are up against, and where the opportunities might lie.

Group I: The Full Fixture Schedule

France: The Group Favourite

France enter the tournament as one of two or three sides with a genuine claim to lifting the trophy. Coach Didier Deschamps, in his final tournament after 13 years in charge, has named a squad built around Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele, and a forward group that also includes Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki and Desire Doue. Mbappe captains the side at his third World Cup and goes in as La Liga’s top scorer for the season.

The French defence has William Saliba (Arsenal) and Ibrahima Konate (Liverpool) as the central partnership, with Theo Hernandez and Malo Gusto as the full-backs. In midfield, the ageing but still influential N’Golo Kante partners Aurelien Tchouameni and Warren Zaire-Emery. France were unbeaten in European qualifying with five wins and one draw.

For Iraq, the France game on 22 June in Philadelphia is the occasion rather than the target. France are priced at roughly 70 percent probability to win the group. Iraq’s task is to be compact, limit space in behind for Mbappe and the forwards, and not concede an early goal that opens the game up before half-time.

Senegal: AFCON Champions, Despite the Chaos

Senegal head into the 2026 World Cup as African champions on paper, though the manner of that title is complicated. They beat Morocco in the AFCON final, but the match ended in controversy after Senegal walked off the pitch following a disputed penalty award. The Confederation of African Football later stripped Senegal of the title via an appeals board ruling. So they arrive carrying both the prestige of an AFCON win and the unresolved atmosphere of a title that is contested.

Manager Pape Thiaw leads a squad that still has Sadio Mane in attack alongside Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea) and Iliman Ndiaye (Everton). At the back, Kalidou Koulibaly, now 34, remains the defensive leader despite some inconsistency at club level in 2025/26. Krepin Diatta and Moussa Niakhate provide pace in behind him.

Senegal play France first on 16 June, which echoes the most famous result in their World Cup history: a 1-0 win over defending champions France in 2002. They will not go into that game as underdogs in their own minds, even if the odds suggest otherwise. For Iraq, the Senegal match on 26 June in Toronto may be when Senegal have already qualified or are already out; in either case the motivation picture could be complicated.

Norway: Haaland’s First World Cup

Norway are back at the World Cup after 28 years, and the reason is straightforward: Erling Haaland. The Manchester City striker scored consistently throughout qualifying as Norway won all eight of their European qualifying matches, making Stale Solbakken’s side one of the form teams entering the tournament. Martin Odegaard pulls the strings from deep, Alexander Sorloth provides another forward option, and Antonio Nusa contributes pace on the right.

Norway’s tactical shape is built around giving Haaland service. They play direct when possible, rely on Odegaard’s intelligence to find him in pockets, and defend with a compact mid-block. The Iraq game on 16 June in Foxborough is their opener, and every tactical analysis of Group I identifies it as Norway’s most straightforward route to three points.

That framing cuts both ways. Iraq will defend well against Norway because they have to. Arnold’s side sat in two compact banks of four for most of qualifying. If they can contain Haaland and Odegaard in the first 30 minutes, Iraq have shown they are capable of hitting on the counter with purpose. It will not be easy, but it is the most realistic match for Iraq to take something from.

Iraq’s Realistic Chances

Sportsbooks price Iraq as heavy outsiders to qualify from Group I, and that assessment is fair. France and Norway are both stronger on paper. The question is whether paper strength becomes actual goals against a side that qualified through 21 matches and knows how to make itself hard to beat.

The scenario where Iraq advance is specific: at minimum a point against Norway on 16 June, then avoiding a heavy defeat against France, and then something from Senegal depending on how the final matchday shapes up. Iraq managed the campaign against Bolivia from a position of apparent disadvantage and found a way. Arnold’s teams do not collapse; they absorb and counter.

The more achievable goal, and one that would represent a meaningful tournament for a country returning after 40 years, is competitive performances in all three matches and perhaps a first World Cup goal since 1986. Aymen Hussein’s tournament will matter. So will the three group games that come around in June.

Betting on Group I

The Norway opener on 16 June is the match where Iraq’s group campaign could be defined. A competitive performance against Haaland and Odegaard, even without a result, tells a different story than a 4-0 defeat. And if Iraq do take a point, the rest of the group becomes genuinely open.

Betfinal is one of the most popular bookmakers among Iraqi football fans, with Arabic support and local deposit methods. For the Norway match, Betfinal’s $25,000 World Cup Leaderboard means every bet you place earns points toward the prize pool; losing bets still count, so there is no downside to being active throughout the group stage.

See the full Betfinal World Cup campaign, including the Leaderboard structure and the Digital Passport badge system. For our full review of what Betfinal offers during the tournament, see our Betfinal World Cup 2026 review on iraqbet.

Frequently Asked Questions

For the full Iraq squad and player profiles, see our Iraq World Cup 2026 squad page. For Graham Arnold’s tactical approach, see our Graham Arnold profile on iraqbet.